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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the🦋 scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, h𓆉owever, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In theꦫ Bundesliga🃏 a typical outcome of match is determined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning: All teams in the Bu𒀰ndesliga have about the same conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1🉐,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that teams perform especially wel♊l at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in a match. To be precise, the number of goals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2💧,8.
Rathe��r not. 46 % ꧃of all wins are based upon a one-goal-margin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implication 75% of m🅘atches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle 🐼of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two match d🔥ays about 20% more goals are scored than on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past matches is especially informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among aꦕll teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are a lot more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good tea💙ms show a slightly better conversion.
The market value of a team as determined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal differ🐻ence increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a team scores aga🥂inst an average opponent)
The coincidence averages out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the performances of te𒈔ams.
A football match is dominated by effec༒ts of coincidence. Additionally the performance level of offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunities would perfec🍌𒁏tly predict the performance level.
The goal difference is det🤪ermined by effects of coincജidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day aꦰre, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer break and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on💯 your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the context of sta♛tistical preciseness, the conversion of effective goalscoring opportunities is iꦉdentical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely 🤡rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of 𒉰the market value and the effective differente of goalscor🍎ing opportunities you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the season..
No. In fact only in half of the cases the best tea🍨m wins and becomes German champion at ꦕthe end of the season.
No. Statistically, t♐here are no bogey team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is enough for🅘 today, we will let you🌊 know another rime.